Estimating the Potential Impacts of the Administrations Fiscal Year 2018 Budget Proposal on Safety Net Programs Using Microsimulation

“The president’s budget proposal for fiscal year (FY) 2018, released in late May 2017, includes major changes to many categories of government spending, including spending on programs that assist lower- income Americans (OMB 2017a, 2017b, 2017c). The proposed budget describes specific policy changes related to Supplemental Security Income (SSI), the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP (formerly known as the Food Stamp program), and rental housing assistance programs. It also proposes a 10 percent reduction in the block grant that funds the Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) program and proposes ending the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP). In addition to laying out these program-specific changes, the administration’s budget proposes substantial reductions in the budget category known as nondefense discretionary (NDD) spending, such that the total spending on NDD in 2027 (the last year of the 10-year period shown in the budget documents) would be 41 percent lower than projected under current law. The NDD cuts could affect housing assistance programs, child care subsidies, and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), all of which are funded in whole or in part by NDD funds. Taken together, the proposed changes could have substantial impacts on caseloads and benefits in the various safety net programs…”